Arab world faces sharp decline in birth rates amid demographic shifts

RIYADH –

Birth rates across the Arab world have been declining at a striking pace in recent years, sparking intense debate among sociologists. Experts are divided between those warning of an impending demographic ageing crisis and others advocating a balanced approach to family planning, while some argue that the full impact of falling fertility will not emerge for decades.

In Saudi Arabia, the number of newborns fell from 465,000 in 2017 to 417,000 in 2022, according to the Saudi General Authority for Statistics? a decline of over 10 percent in just six years. Data reported by the Saudi newspaper Al-Eqtisadiah and sourced from the World Bank show an even steeper long-term fall, from 44 births per 1,000 people in 1980 to 16 per 1,000 in 2023.

Egypt has also recorded a decline. The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics reported in August 2025 that 1,998,000 births were registered by the end of 2024, down 77,000 from 2023, a reduction of 3.8 percent. Lebanon has experienced a dramatic drop following its 2019 economic crisis, with births falling by 39.8 percent between 2020 and 2023, totalling 271,913 compared to 354,866 in the preceding four years, according to estimates cited by the local An-Nahar newspaper in 2024. Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics reported a 10 percent decline in births in 2024, falling to 133,322 from 147,242 in 2023.

A UN report on global population prospects, released on December 17, highlighted wide disparities in birth rates across the Arab world in 2025. Egypt led with 2.45 million births, followed by Yemen (1.40 million), Iraq (1.18 million), and Algeria (855,000). Morocco recorded 619,000, Syria 601,000, Saudi Arabia 564,000, Jordan 232,000, Tunisia 160,000, Palestine 144,000, Libya 120,000, the UAE 114,000, Lebanon 92,000, Oman 90,000, Kuwait 48,000, Qatar 29,000, and Bahrain 10,000.

Commenting on the broader trend, former Tunisian minister and sociology professor Dr Mehdi Mabrouk told Anadolu Agency, “The causes are multiple, and no single factor can be generalised across different Arab societies.”

He added, “The Egyptian case is entirely different from Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, but there is a general trend, described in social sciences as demographic transition. This process began in Western societies in the 1960s and is now unfolding in Arab countries, albeit in varied forms and contexts.”

Mabrouk explained the decline partly reflects modern societal preferences, “Some argue this is a hallmark of modernity, as people shift from extended families to smaller households, prioritising individual happiness and perceiving childbearing as a potential burden.” He noted a global trend toward having fewer children, not only due to economic constraints—as in Egypt and Tunisia, but also out of heightened awareness of the physical, psychological, and social care children require.

The sociologist warned that Arab societies could move from “social prosperity to population ageing.” He said Tunisia had already entered a phase of demographic ageing, with women’s fertility rates dropping below 2 percent, currently at 1.8 percent. “In the coming years, Egypt and Saudi Arabia may also see their populations ageing as fertility declines,” Mabrouk added.

He predicted that shrinking birth rates would impact the workforce, prompting greater reliance on imported labour, even in countries that historically did not do so, such as Tunisia and Morocco. “We will see older generations isolated, while institutions focused on elderly care, geriatric medicine, and life assistance professions will grow, mirroring Western trends,” he said.

Contrastingly, Egyptian demographic expert Ayman Zahry argued that the decline is natural and even positive, signalling the spread of modernisation. “As societies develop, marriage and childbirth rates fall, with parents focusing on raising fewer children to higher standards. This is not necessarily negative,” he said.

Zahry stressed that economic conditions, whether challenging or favourable, can influence family size, but that the long-term impact on population ageing would only become apparent after 30 years. He added that current fertility declines are modest and have been exaggerated in the media relative to their scientific significance.

Economist Ali Idrissi, a member of the Egyptian Society for Legislation and Economics, noted that falling birth rates represent a clear demographic shift reflecting deeper changes in social and economic behaviour.

“While immediate effects are limited, the long-term implications for economic growth, labour markets, and public services are significant,” he said.

Idrissi described declining fertility as a double-edged sword: it could provide opportunities to rebuild economies around productivity, knowledge, and technology while reducing pressure on education and healthcare systems, but, if unplanned, could result in labour shortages and rising social welfare costs.

Both Mabrouk and Idrissi emphasised the need for balanced, well-managed policies. “The future does not lie in promoting high fertility directly, nor in leaving population trends entirely to market forces,” Idrissi said.

Mabrouk concluded, “Arab societies should avoid severe population ageing due to the high social, human, and cultural costs. I advocate a middle path, neither extreme population growth nor minimal childbearing, ensuring children are well cared for while preventing social isolation and overreliance on migrant labour.”