Experts, politicians debate EU’s influence, existence in current geopolitical climate

ASSILAH – The European Union has lost its international influence and political weight to the United States, Russia and China despite its involvement in international affairs, said experts and politicians in the Moroccan city of Assilah.

Vincenzo Amendola, former Italian minister of European Affairs, said the Europe’s political and economic hegemony no longer exists because of the rise of new powers which are shaping a new geopolitical world.

Amendola cited the different crises since the inception of the European Union, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, which have impacted the European bloc socially and economically.

He said that the European Union allocated over 700 billion euros to avert the economic fallout which was exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, a move which proved the solidarity to protect the single market.

Nassif Hitti, former Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, said Europe was still suffering from the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis which has slowed down the European integration process and construction.

Many European politicians warned that the EU’s expansion policy would have grave consequences on the continent and hinder its ability to quickly absorb some newcomers,” said Hitti.

“Europe was interested in integration despite its cost and the economic difficulties,” he said.

Hitti highlighted the problem of illegal migration that has gripped Europe and exacerbated the rise of the far right movement in the continent.

“Europeans responded to the suffering of clandestine migrants with the establishment of a “Berlin wall” on both the southern and eastern Mediterranean sides to prevent them from coming to the “safety” beach,” he said.

Nabil bin Yaqoob Al Hamer, Advisor to the Bahraini King for Media Affairs, said that Europe was ruling the world in the last three centuries, especially the Middle East.

“Europe was colonising countries through the dynamism of colonialism and through its industrial revolution, politics, intellect and culture,” said Hamer.

The Bahraini politician wondered whether Europe would be able to carry on its ascendance or started to decline.

“There is no doubt that power inclinations or the exit from history is a thorny and complex subject which is tied to peoples, and to social, political and economic changes,” he said.

“In my opinion, there is no proof that Europe will exit history or decline in any way. The truth is that Europe plays an important role in international affairs and preserves a rich cultural and economic heritage,” said Hamer, noting that these could be challenges that would impact some European countries.

“We cannot consider that Europe is out of history or in a quick decline because it is still greatly influential in the international arena,” he added.

The EU and the international system: elements of strength and complements of weakness

Luis Amado, former Portuguese Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that we are in a very complex geopolitical and macroeconomic situation that is impacting the ever changing world.

“The EU has a weakness in the context of a global state power politics,” said Amado.

“We will not have a European Union in a good global position again as it was 10 or 20 years ago if the dynamic of change and the geographic shift that we can face doesn’t bring back a context of geopolitical stability,” he said.

Amado thinks that the world will have a decade of very disruptive disorder in geopolitics.

He called for the need to understand that we live in extraordinary times.

“We have very serious existential crises when we think about pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, artificial intelligence, climate change and nuclear proliferation,” said Amado.

The Portuguese politician predicted in 2007 that the EU’s expansion plan to include Ukraine and Georgia would result in a conflict with Russia.

“In 2008, Georgia was invaded by Russia and we knew that it would be invaded… but nobody was able to stop that dynamic,” said Amado.

He emphasised the international influence of the three great powers – China, Russia and the US – that had lessened the EU’s geopolitical role.

“We (the EU) made a lot of mistakes because we ideologised our foreign policy,” he said.

Desiree Custers, a West Africa and North Africa analyst, highlighted the difficulty of the EU to form a common foreign policy because it is not state.

“There is a lot of discrepancy between opinions and priorities of the member states,” said

She said one of the EU’s weaknesses is how the European bloc is perceived from outside.

She noted that, based on her experience in the Middle East and North Africa, was that the EU is often perceived as having double standards which does not help it in forging good relations with other countries.

“This negative international image also emerges from the fact it had had lot of failed missions,” she said, citing the example of the Sahel region when the EU’s foreign policy failed to materialise.

However, she said that EU does have a lot of positive projects when it comes to people-to-people relations, economic activities and development of infrastructure.

The future of building the EU: trends and horizons

Najib Friji, Director of the International peace Institute, said the EU hung on to the single market but was unable to develop it in order to achieve the international radiation.

Felipe Pathe Duarte, Assistant Professor and researcher at the NOVA School of Law in Lisbon, said that for the last few years the EU went through three major disruptive events which are: the Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war which led to a dramatic rise of the cost of living.

“These three events presented a challenge to the EU’s balance of power,” explained

The professor said the EU was already thinking about the enlargement of the European bloc when the UK left, giving way to the shift in countries’ influence within the EU.

As for the coronavirus pandemic, he said that the EU took unprecedented steps by launching a 750-billion-sitimilus package with Italy and Spain being the most beneficiaries.

“The stimulus package was a precedent in the EU’s history and was a strong sign of a more influential southern Europe,” he said.

Duarte said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a spike of inflation in Europe and more expensive energy supplies.

“Following the economic fallout from the war and the subsequent disruption to Russia’s energy exports, the EU against unveiled a large stimulus package and desperately looked for alternative energy supplies to avoid gas rationing,” he said, adding the war presented both a risk and an opportunity for central and eastern European countries which for decades warned about Russia’s threats and called for a more hawkish EU position towards Moscow.

Under the Polish and Baltic states’ pressure, the EU imposed economic and politic sanctions on Russia while increasing financial, humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.

Duarte concluded that China’s military rise will not bring the EU together in the same way Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did and that the three disruptive events in the last three years presented only a challenge to the EU’s balance of powers which does not represent an immediate existential threat to the European bloc.