Middle East on edge as Iran braces for possible US strike

WASHINGTON –

The United States has begun withdrawing some personnel from key military bases in the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran, as Tehran warned neighbouring countries that American installations would be targeted if Washington launches a strike.

A US official said on Wednesday that the drawdown was a precautionary measure in response to heightened regional risks, following warnings from senior Iranian officials that US bases across the Gulf and beyond could be hit if President Donald Trump follows through on threats to intervene in Iran’s domestic unrest.

Qatar confirmed that some personnel had been asked to leave Al Udeid air base, the largest US military facility in the region and the forward headquarters of US Central Command. Diplomats said the reduction did not yet resemble the mass evacuation seen ahead of an Iranian missile attack last year, but described the move as a clear signal of growing concern in Washington.

European and Israeli officials suggested that US military action now appeared increasingly likely, with one European official saying intervention could come within 24 hours, though the scope and timing remain unclear.

The repositioning comes as Iran faces the most violent internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with thousands reported killed in a sweeping crackdown on protests that began over economic hardship and rapidly escalated into nationwide demonstrations against clerical rule.

Iranian officials say more than 2,000 people have died, while rights groups place the toll at over 2,600. More than 18,000 arrests have been reported, and executions linked to the protests may already be under way.

Iran seeks deterrence as fear of US strike grows

Iranian officials have acknowledged privately that the leadership is bracing for the possibility of a US strike, even as it seeks to deter such an outcome through warnings to regional states.

A senior Iranian official said Tehran had told countries hosting US forces, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, that American bases on their territory would be considered legitimate targets if Washington attacks Iran. Direct contacts between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff have been suspended, further narrowing diplomatic off-ramps.

Trump has repeatedly threatened intervention, urging Iranians to continue protesting and calling on them to take over institutions. In a CBS News interview, he vowed “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters, declaring that “help is on the way”.

Iran’s leadership views these statements as an attempt to internationalise the unrest and encourage regime change, a fear sharpened by last year’s 12-day Israeli bombing campaign, joined by the US, and the subsequent reimposition of UN sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said Iran had “never faced this volume of destruction”, blaming foreign enemies. Tehran has accused both the United States and Israel of fomenting the unrest through armed groups it labels terrorists.

Regional states caught between Washington and Tehran

Iran’s warnings have placed neighbouring states in an increasingly precarious position. Gulf countries host key US assets, including the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, while Turkey sits astride major land routes out of Iran.

Iranian officials have intensified diplomatic outreach, with Araqchi speaking to counterparts in Qatar, the UAE and Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed the need for dialogue to defuse tensions, while Qatar said the drawdown at Al Udeid was purely precautionary.

Yet the movement of US personnel, combined with public warnings from Tehran, risks turning host countries into unwilling stakeholders in any confrontation. For regional governments already struggling to contain the fallout from conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, the prospect of Iranian retaliation on their soil represents a severe escalation.

Protests, repression and flight across borders

Inside Iran, the government has imposed an internet blackout, hampering information flows as security forces intensify their response. Western officials say the unrest has damaged the regime’s prestige but does not yet threaten imminent collapse, with the security apparatus still firmly in control.

State media has sought to project resilience, broadcasting large funerals for those killed in the unrest and images of crowds waving flags and portraits of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the government would withstand its enemies as long as it retained popular support.

At the same time, the crackdown has prompted some Iranians to flee. Dozens crossed into Turkey through the Kapikoy border gate on Wednesday, dragging luggage and declining to speak publicly for fear of reprisals. Diplomats said crossings had increased after several countries advised their citizens to leave Iran, though Turkish officials said there was no extraordinary surge.

The US has urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately, recommending overland routes to Turkey or Armenia.

Brinkmanship amid internal crisis

Iran’s leadership is attempting to balance two imperatives: crushing domestic dissent while deterring external intervention. The warnings to regional states and threats against US bases suggest Tehran believes the risk of a strike is real, not rhetorical.

For Washington, the partial drawdown appears designed both to protect personnel and to signal seriousness, without yet committing to action. Trump’s statements, however, have narrowed ambiguity and raised expectations among protesters while heightening Iranian fears of regime-change intentions.

The danger lies in miscalculation. With communication channels frozen, troops repositioning, and regional allies caught in the middle, even a limited strike or Iranian response could rapidly broaden into a regional conflict.

For now, Iran’s government remains in control at home, but the scale of violence, the rising death toll and the spectre of foreign intervention have pushed the crisis into uncharted territory, one where domestic unrest and international brinkmanship are feeding off each other, with consequences that may soon extend far beyond Iran’s borders.