Syria power brokers prepare for showdown in Idlib

LONDON - UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Wednesday that full-scale military operations in Syria's Idlib province could lead to a "humanitarian catastrophe" and cautioned against the use of chemical weapons as the major powers in that country's war turn their sights on the last remaining rebel stronghold.

Guterres's warning came amid fears the government of Bashar al-Assad is mobilizing for a military offensive to retake Idlib, the last province still held by Syria's beleaguered rebels.

"The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the growing risks of a humanitarian catastrophe in the event of a full-scale military operation in Idlib province in Syria," a UN statement said.

"The Secretary-General once again reaffirms that any use of chemical weapons is totally unacceptable."

He appealed urgently to the Syrian government and all other parties "to exercise restraint and to prioritize the protection of civilians."

Guterres also urged the guarantors of a so-called Astana peace initiative led by Turkey, Iran and Russia to step up their efforts "to find a peaceful solution to the situation in Idlib, the last remaining de-escalation zone."

According to western estimates, some three million people are at risk in the province, which borders Turkey.

Explosive repercussions

The fear that the regime will resort to using chemical weapons, as it did during an offensive against rebels in the Eastern Ghouta enclave earlier this year, is only one of several issues of concern around the upcoming assault on the province.

Another is the presence in Idlib of large numbers of fighters and civilians who have preferred to leave their homes rather than submit to Damascus rule.

An offensive by the Syrian government, which wants to retake the province with the backing of Moscow, would have explosive repercussions for civilians as well as for moderate rebels and radical Islamists.

The battle for Idlib will likely be the final major showdown between the warring parties in the seven year conflict. Assad's forces have successfully wrested back control of most Syrian territory since Russia intervened in 2015, turning the tide in the regime’s favour.

In these military campaigns by Assad's forces, Idlib province has been used as a relief valve for those evacuated from other rebel pockets like Eastern Ghouta following their negotiated surrender to the regime.

But fighters who reject similar surrender deals for Idlib will have nowhere to go, heightening the chances of even deadlier battles if an all-out offensive is launched.

"The rebels, as well as desperate civilians, have sheltered in Idlib, but now there is no other 'Idlib' into which they can flee," the Soufan Group think tank said.

UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura told reporters that there was a high concentration of foreign fighters in Idlib, including an estimated 10,000 who are designated by the UN as terrorists, who he said belonged to the al-Nusra Front and al Qaeda.

There could be no justification to use heavy weapons against them in densely populated areas, he said. Miscalculations could lead to unintended consequences, including the possible use of chemical weapons.

"Avoiding the potential use of chemical weapons is indeed crucial," de Mistura told reporters in Geneva.

"We all are aware that both the government and al-Nusra have the capability to produce weaponised chlorine."

De Mistura said it would be better to set up humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians than rush into a battle which could prove to be a "perfect storm".

Insurgent groups

Idlib is controlled by an array of insurgent groups, with Sunni Muslim jihadists believed to be the dominant force there. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said that tens of thousands of 'terrorists' were trying to obstruct Turkey's efforts to separate them from more moderate forces.

The leader of the main jihadist force has urged rebels in the region to resist the impending assault, showing the uncertainty of Turkey’s efforts to exert control there.

Abu Muhammad al-Golani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group which is the dominant force in the province, has warned rebels against accepting any “reconciliation” or surrender deals.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, and is considered by Russia, the US and the UN to be a terrorist group and the offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria.

“Our weapons are the source of our strength and honour,” Golani said. “Thinking about surrendering to the enemy and handing over weapons will be considered treason.”

But in comments published on its propaganda agency Ibaa, HTS appeared to leave the door open to a negotiated settlement.

"The issue of the disbanding -- should it ever take place -- is one that would be discussed internally by the alliance's consultative council but not dictated by local or foreign parties," it said.

"We in HTS are striving to find an effective solution in the liberated Syrian north that would protect our people from a possible offensive by the criminal regime and its allies."

"The negotiations between Turkey and HTS are still under way," said the head of the Britain-based Syria Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman. He said that Russia wants the jihadist outfit to disband.

"This is the condition set by Moscow to avert a broad offensive... Its launch hinges on the failure or success of these talks with HTS."

While Turkey actively sponsors rebel forces in Idlib, its influence over the former Al-Qaeda affiliate is less clear and Abdel Rahman warned the chances of success were slim.

"Turkey's relationship with HTS is a complicated one but may best be framed as cooperative animosity," said analyst Elizabeth Teoman, of the Institute for the Study of War.

Turkey, Russia and fellow regime backer Iran all operate "observation points" in Idlib as part of a "de-escalation" deal agreed last year that was meant to reduce bloodshed in the province.

But with a regime offensive looming, the Turkish military has been reinforcing its 12 monitoring posts.

Russian deflection

During closed-door talks at the UN Tuesday that were requested by Russia, Moscow claimed, without evidence, that rescue workers from the well-known White Helmets organisation were preparing a chemical attack in Idlib, according to diplomats, who called the allegations "very bizarre."

Russia has previously accused the White Helmets and other activist groups of being fronts for jihadist forces and of being guided in their actions by Western intelligence agencies.

Western powers say these claims are an attempt to deflect attention away from the Syrian regime's abuses in the conflict, and in this instance to distract from its preparations for a military offensive in Idlib.

According to the diplomats, western powers have given the UN Security Council the names of Syrian commanders and regiments involved in the preparations for an offensive in Idlib, who could be held responsible in the event of attacks on civilians.

During a public session on Syria at the UN Tuesday, Russia denied any possibility of a chemical attack in Idlib by the Syrian government.

Russia's Ambassador Vassily Nevenzia insisted that the Syrian military has no chemical weapons and did not intend to use any.

Russia's Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said he had told US officials earlier this week that Moscow is concerned over signs that the United States is preparing new strikes on Syria and warned against "groundless and illegal aggression against Syria".

Antonov met this week with US officials, including James Jeffrey, special representative for Syria, the Russia Embassy said in a posting on its Facebook page.

Russia meanwhile has deployed at least a dozen vessels to waters off the Syrian coast in what is believed to be the largest Russian naval buildup in the Mediterranean since the beginning of its intervention in the war.

Russia's Ministry of Defence said on Thursday it would hold naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea from Sept. 1 to Sept. 8 and that 25 vessels and 30 planes would take part, the TASS news agency reported.

The ministry said the drills would involve carrying out anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and anti-mining exercises.

The massive Russian naval presence near Syria is likely intended as a deterrent to Western powers becoming more involved if Assad’s troops use too much force, or even chemical weapons, as well as being a sign that regime forces are preparing for the anticipated battle.

But under President Donald Trump the US has moved to disengage from Syria, where the previous administration under Barack Obama deployed a limited number of troops and gave limited support to rebel Kurdish forces over the objections of NATO partner Turkey.

“I hope our Western partners will not give in to provocations and will not obstruct an anti-terror operation." Lavrov said.

"It is necessary to disassociate the so-called moderate opposition from terrorists and at the same time prepare an operation against them while minimising risks for the civilian population... this abscess [of terrorists] needs to be liquidated.”