Syrian rebels see Idlib deal as victory, Damascus as test

DAMASCUS - Syrian opposition officials praised a deal between Russia and Turkey over Idlib province on Tuesday, saying it had spared the rebel-held region a bloody government offensive and would thwart President Bashar al-Assad's aim of recovering all Syria.

But Damascus, while welcoming the agreement unveiled on Monday, vowed to press on with its campaign to recover "every inch" of the country. Its ambassador to Lebanon said the deal would test Turkey's ability to deliver on promises to disarm rebels.

The agreement has diminished the prospects of a Syrian government offensive which the United Nations warned would create a humanitarian catastrophe in the Idlib region, home to about three million people.

The Idlib region and adjoining territory north of Aleppo represents the Syrian opposition's last big foothold in Syria, where Iranian and Russian military support has helped Assad recover most of the areas once held by the insurgency.

But strong Turkish opposition to an Idlib attack has obstructed government plans for an offensive, and the agreement announced on Monday appears to preserve a role for Turkey in the northwest - something seen as anathema to Assad.

"The Idlib deal preserves lives of civilians and their direct targeting by the regime. It buries Assad's dreams of imposing his full control over Syria," Mustafa Sejari, a Free Syria Army (FSA) official, said.

"This area will remain in the hands of the Free Syrian Army and will force the regime and its supporters to start a serious political process that leads to a real transition that ends Assad's rule," Sejari said.

The spokesman for the opposition Syrian Negotiations Commission said the deal had halted an offensive for which government forces had been mobilising in recent weeks, calling it a "victory for the will for life over the will for death".

The "scenario of attack is practically excluded, at least for a period of time that is not small, and we hope that it will be permanent," Yahya al-Aridi said.

'Cleared of radicals'

The deal unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Assad's most powerful ally, and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will create a new demilitarised zone from which "radical" rebels must withdraw by the middle of next month.

The Idlib region and adjoining territory north of Aleppo represents the opposition's last big foothold in Syria. Assad has recovered most of the areas once held by the rebels, with decisive military support from Iran and Russia.

But his plans to recover the northwest have been complicated by Turkey's role on the ground: it has soldiers at 12 locations in Idlib and supplies weapons to some of the rebels.

Earlier this month, Putin publicly rebuffed a proposal from Erdogan for a ceasefire when the two met along with Iran's president for a summit in Tehran. Erdogan had feared another exodus of refugees to join the 3.5 million already in Turkey, and warned against any attack.

In striking the deal, Russia appears - at least for now - to have put its ties with Turkey ahead of advancing the goal of bringing all Syria back under Assad's rule.

That goal is also obstructed by the presence of US forces in the quarter of Syria east of the Euphrates which is held by an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias, and at a base near the borders with Jordan and Iraq.

Analysts cautioned that implementation of the deal faced big challenges, notably how to separate jihadists from other rebels - a goal Ankara has been struggling to achieve for some time.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the "moderate opposition" would keep its weapons and the "region will be cleared of radicals". Turkey would "make additional troop deployments" and its 12 observation posts would remain.

The deal was "very important for the political resolution in Syria". "If this (Idlib) had been lost too, there would be no opposition anymore," he said.

Meanwhile Iran's foreign minister on Tuesday hailed the agreement between Turkey and Russia as an example of "responsible diplomacy."

"Intensive responsible diplomacy over the last few weeks ... is succeeding to avert war in Idlib with a firm commitment to fight extremist terror," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote on Twitter.

"Diplomacy works," he added, pointing to his visits to Ankara and Damascus as well as a three-way summit between the leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey earlier this month.

Asked at a news conference Tuesday whether Iran was consulted about the Sochi decision, Zarif said: "Yes, Iran has always been at the centre of consultations," the semi-official news agency Isna reported.

Assad regime

Meanwhile, a Syrian foreign ministry official said the deal has a specific timeframe and is based on the "sovereignty and unity" of Syrian land.

"It is part of previous agreements ... which were based on the commitment to ... liberating all Syrian land, whether from terrorists or from any illegitimate foreign military presence," state media cited the official as saying.

Al-Watan, a pro-Syrian government newspaper, said on Tuesday the zone would stretch for 15 km around Idlib city.

It also said Syrian state institutions would return to Idlib by the end of the year in the final phase of the deal after insurgents hand over all of their heavy weapons and move away from civilian areas.

Citing unidentified diplomatic sources in Moscow, it said any factions rejecting the agreement would be considered enemies "even of the Turkish army and will be classed as terrorists that must be fought".

Syria's ambassador to Lebanon, in an interview with Lebanon's al-Jadeed TV, reiterated his government's distrust of Turkey, a major backer of the Syrian rebellion which has deployed troops across the opposition-held northwest.

"I see it as a test of the extent of Turkey's ability to commit to implementing this decision. They are under pressure now and I believe they will try," Ali Abdul Karim said.

"We do not trust Turkey ... but it's useful for Turkey to be able to carry out this fight to rid these groups from their weapons...Turkey could deal with this responsibility and this would be useful," he said.

The demilitarised zone will be monitored by Russian and Turkish forces, the leaders said on Monday.

Putin said the decision was to establish by Oct. 15 a demilitarised area 15-20 km (10-12 miles) deep along the contact line between rebel and government fighters, with radical militants to be withdrawn from the area, including members of the Nusra Front.

Erdogan, who had feared another cross-border exodus of Syrian refugees to join the 3.5 million already in Turkey, said the deal would allow opposition supporters to stay where they were and avert a humanitarian crisis.

Putin said that by Oct. 10, all opposition heavy weapons, mortars, tanks, rocket systems would be removed from the demilitarised zone, and said this was Erdogan's suggestion.

Neither Putin not Erdogan explained how they planned to differentiate "radically-minded" rebels from other anti-Assad groups.

Idlib is held by an array of rebels. The most powerful is Tahrir al-Sham, an amalgamation of Islamist groups dominated by the former Nusra Front - an al Qaeda affiliate until 2016.

The area is also the last major haven for foreign jihadists who came to Syria to fight the Alawite-led Assad government.

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and analyst at Carnegie Europe, said it was unclear how Turkey and Russia would be able to separate radical fighters from other rebels.

The hope is that Syrians "will be more inclined to be part of a demilitarisation effort" while foreign fighters "have nowhere to go", he said.

Other Islamists, and groups fighting as the Free Syrian Army banner, are now gathered with Turkish backing under the banner of the "National Front for Liberation".

Naji Abu Hufaiza, spokesman for the National Front for Liberation said he did not have details of the agreement, but said that while he saw it as a success for Turkish diplomacy, his group did not trust Russia to uphold it.

"Is this merely a stay of execution? Or is it the beginning of a reprieve?" UN aid chief Mark Lowcock asked during a monthly meeting of the UN Security Council on Syria.