Syrian regime's southern offensive uproots more than 120,000

DAMASCUS - A Syrian government offensive in the southwest has uprooted more than 120,000 civilians, driving most of them towards the border with Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, a war monitoring group said on Friday.

A senior Israeli minister said refugees gathering at the Golan frontier must be prevented from crossing into Israel. Jordan, already hosting some 650,000 Syrian refugees, also says its border will remain closed to more refugees.

Syrian government forces backed by Russian air power have turned their focus to the rebel-held southwest since defeating the last remaining insurgent pockets near the cities of Damascus and Homs.

Their advances in areas east and northeast of Deraa city, and bombardment of the heavily populated rebel-held town of Nawa to its northwest, have triggered a mass flight of civilians.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said tens of thousands had gathered at Syria's border with Jordan while thousands more had fled to the Golan frontier, many of them from Nawa.

Observatory Director Rami Abdulrahman, speaking by phone, said some people had also crossed into government-held areas, while others had gone to a corner of the southwest held by an Islamic State-affiliated group.

"I think we must prevent the entry of refugees from Syria to Israel, in the past we have prevented such cases," Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, a senior minister, told Tel Aviv Radio 102FM in an interview.

Jordan says the international community must find ways to support Syrians inside Syria. "Jordan has reached its capacity in receiving refugees," Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told the pan-Arab broadcaster al-Jazeera late on Thursday, affirming the government position.

'Inhuman attacks'

Turkey on Friday condemned the regime attacks as "inhuman", calling on Damascus' allies to stop the offensive.

Thursday was the bloodiest day yet after dozens of strikes identified as Russian killed 25 civilians, mostly in the town of Al-Mseifra, the Observatory said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said "Russia, Iran and the US were responsible for the (regime's) violations", state news agency Anadolu reported.

"We strongly condemn these inhuman attacks" by the regime on "innocent" people, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said in a statement.

Turkey and Russia have stood on the opposite sides of the Syrian conflict, with Ankara repeatedly calling for Assad's ouster.

But alongside Assad's other main ally Iran, Russia and Turkey have been working to try to find a political solution in Syria through peace talks based in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"These attacks hinder the efforts in Astana and (the UN-supported process in) Geneva to reduce violence on the ground and to find a political solution for the crisis," Aksoy added.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who formerly had warm relations with Assad, has actively supported the opposition since the start of the conflict in 2011.

But in the past 18 months, Ankara has been less concerned about Assad's removal and focused on battling Kurdish militia in northern Syria, on the Turkish border.

In January, Turkey launched a military operation supporting Syrian rebels against the People's Protection Units (YPG) militia in its western enclave of Afrin.

In March, Turkish forces with the rebels drove the YPG -- which Ankara says is linked to outlawed insurgents inside Turkey -- out of Afrin city.

Outside support?

Syria's south is a strategic zone bordering Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan, and easily accessible from the capital Damascus.

Rebels there enjoyed backing by the United States and Arab countries for years through a joint command in Jordan.

But when President Bashar al-Assad's army began pounding the south with air strikes and barrel bombs on June 19, none of these backers came to their aid.

Instead, Washington sent rebels a written message telling them not to expect US help to fend off the assault.

Jordan, meanwhile, has repeatedly urged the US and Russia to reach a political settlement.

Amman prefers a regime win in the south, analysts say, because it would help reopen the Nassib border crossing and the resumption of lucrative trade.

"The Americans abandoning the rebels and the closing of the Jordanian border look like an international green light for Russia's campaign in the south," said Ahmad Abazeid, a researcher from Deraa.

That leaves rebels "with few choices", he said.

No choice

Syrian state news agency SANA has reported that rebels in three towns in Deraa's eastern countryside had already agreed to a regime takeover over the last two days.

On Friday, it carried preliminary reports that rebels in four more towns had "agreed to hand over their weapons... and reconcile".

Syria's army on Friday organised a press tour of recently recaptured towns in the south, including Al-Soura.

A military commander there, speaking on condition of anonymity, told journalists that the army's advance left opposition fighters with "no choice" but to surrender.

"The terrorist groups are heading towards settlement and reconciliation," the commander said.

The strategy is one the government and its Russian ally have used across Syria: bombing, isolating rebel towns with ground attacks, and ultimately securing their surrender.

They have already divided rebel territory in the south -- which forms a rough U-shape spanning Deraa and neighbouring Quneitra province -- into several chunks.

The Observatory said on Friday that as many as eight towns were in negotiations over a potential regime takeover.

"There are talks between the Russians on one side and opposition factions on the other, through local mediators, over the fate of eight towns in Deraa's countryside," it said.

Abdulrahman said members of Russia's military police were leading the talks for each town separately.

"Most of them appear willing to reconcile with the regime, which will see rebel fighters hand over their heavy weapons," said Abdulrahman.

Rebel options

Broadly speaking, rebels have two options: continuing to fight or accepting some kind of negotiated settlement.

But neither looks good for the war-weary factions, said International Crisis Group's Sam Heller.

"Rebels are facing a set of options where even the best one is bad -- they're stuck between negotiating with Russia through Jordanian mediation, or continuing to resist militarily which will ultimately end with talks under even greater military pressure," Heller said.

The rebels have almost no chance of winning although they have vowed to fight until the end, which could be a ploy to escalate the stakes and secure a better deal, said Abazeid.

But with the regime's speedy ground gains, the clock is ticking for rebels -- and the longer they drag out the fight, the higher the price for civilians.

Nearly 100 civilians have died since the assault began, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations says around 50,000 have been displaced.

"No negotiated settlement will please rebels, but at the same time, it's impossible for civilians to bear more than their fair share of death and destruction," said Heller.

The Syrian war has already displaced 6 million people inside Syria and driven 5.5 million abroad as refugees.