US threatens military action if Hezbollah misses disarmament deadline

JERUSALEM

Israeli media reported on Thursday that Hezbollah had received a direct warning from the US administration, delivered via intermediaries, setting a firm deadline for disarmament before the start of 2026 and threatening a broad military response should the Shia group continue to defy the directives.

According to Israel’s Channel 14, the American message was described as “sharp,” reflecting Washington’s conviction that Hezbollah has yet to comply with the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon signed over a year ago, which designates the Lebanese army as the sole authorised armed force in southern Lebanon.

Channel sources added that Hezbollah’s ongoing efforts to reinforce its arsenal in the south indicate the group’s intent to rebuild influence, at a time when Iranian support remains a key factor in escalating regional tensions.

The report noted that Tel Aviv is closely monitoring whether to suspend its policy of targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, following a near-complete halt in recent weeks of operations against senior members.

Israeli sources suggested that this operational pause may be part of a “dual strategy,” providing Israel and the Lebanese government a window to encourage Hezbollah’s voluntary disarmament, while preserving the option of a large-scale military confrontation if required.

Channel 14 highlighted the scale of Israel’s actions since the ceasefire, estimating that around 360 Hezbollah operatives were killed over the past year, equivalent, according to Israeli calculations, to roughly one operative per day. The figures underscore Israel’s continued reliance on selective strikes and targeted assassinations as tools to limit Hezbollah’s rearmament and curb its influence in southern Lebanon.

The report also indicated that Washington has adopted a hardline approach, viewing Hezbollah’s retention of weapons as a breach of the agreement and a threat to regional stability.

Diplomatic sources described the US message as part of a graduated dual-pressure policy: an implicit threat of Israeli military action, combined with a limited period for voluntary compliance, signalling maximum pressure without immediate confrontation.

Meanwhile, reports suggest Hezbollah has accelerated its rearmament in southern Lebanon in recent months, acquiring weapons and fortifying positions to offset losses sustained during previous targeting operations and consolidate its presence along the Israeli border. Israeli analysts warn that ignoring the US-imposed deadline could prompt rapid escalation, potentially involving wide-ranging air and ground strikes.

The developments raise questions about Lebanon’s capacity to control illicit weapons within its borders, particularly given Iran’s direct involvement and Hezbollah’s entrenched political and military influence, making implementation of any disarmament agreement highly complex.

Against this backdrop of US and Israeli warnings, southern Lebanon remains a potential flashpoint, where military, political and diplomatic considerations are closely intertwined. The outcome will largely hinge on Hezbollah’s response to Washington’s deadline, whether it opts for voluntary compliance or triggers a confrontation with unpredictable consequences.