Erdogan threatens 'military force' amid Idlib violence

ISTANBUL - Turkey may launch a military operation into Syria's northwestern Idlib province if the situation is not resolved immediately, President Tayyip Erdogan said Friday as attacks by Russia-backed Syrian government forces risked a new wave of refugees.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces, backed by Russian air power, have since last week rapidly advanced on Idlib. They have taken dozens of towns, including the key city of Maarat al-Numan, upending the last major rebel-held stronghold in Syria's nearly nine-year war.

The recent campaign has also raised tensions between Ankara and Moscow, which back opposing sides in the conflict. Turkey fears a fresh wave of migrants from Idlib and has 12 observation posts in the region, part of a 2018 de-escalation deal that Erdogan says Russia is now violating.

Speaking in Ankara, Erdogan repeated Turkey could not handle a fresh influx of migrants. He said Ankara will not allow new threats near its borders, even if it meant resorting to military power, as it did in its three previous cross-border operations in northern Syria.

"We will do what is necessary when someone is threatening our soil. We will have no choice but to resort to the same path again if the situation in Idlib is not returned to normal quickly," Erdogan said.

He also appeared to hold out the option of another operation in northeastern Syria, where in October Ankara targeted the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia that it calls a terrorist group.

"We will not refrain from doing what is necessary, including using military force," he said, adding Turkey wants stability and security in Syria. State news agency Anadolu reported Wednesday that the Turkish army sent reinforcements to Reyhanli, a Turkish border town near Idlib.

Erdogan said the only solution for Syria was a political process involving all citizens. He hit out at unnamed countries who "give courage to the regime" in a bid to ensure the crisis continues.

Earlier this week, Erdogan offered rare criticism of Russia, accusing Moscow of "not honouring" agreements made with Ankara to prevent a regime offensive on Idlib. Despite Russia assisting Assad and Turkey supporting opposition fighters, Ankara and Moscow have worked closely to try to resolve the nine-year war.

"If we are loyal partners with Russia on this, they have to put forth their stance... Our wish is that Russia immediately makes the necessary warnings to the regime which it sees as a friend," Erdogan said on Wednesday.

Ten civilians were reportedly killed Thursday by Russian air strikes despite a ceasefire announcement, though Moscow denied it. The Kremlin said Russia was fully compliant with its obligations in Idlib, but that it was deeply concerned about what it said were aggressive militant attacks on Syrian government forces and Russia's Hmeimim air base.

Turkey, which has backed some rebels fighting to oust Assad, currently hosts more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan has repeatedly called for Assad to step down, even while Iran, Russia and Turkey have said they seek a political solution to the conflict.

"We will not allow the regime to put our country under the constant threat of migrants by tormenting, attacking, spilling the blood of... its people," Erdogan said.

Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been displaced in Idlib since December after months of bombardment in the last rebel-held region in Syria's northwest. Many of them have fled towards the Turkey-Syria border, where Erdogan has said Ankara is building homes in a bid to prevent further migration.

As the Syrian government’s forces retake strategic points in Idlib, it will become increasingly difficult for Turkey to protect its interests there, analyst Samuel Ramani told Arab News.

“It’s rare to see Erdogan make such a critical statement in the post-2016 environment of improved Russia-Turkey relations,” he said. “Turkey’s main priority now is to contain the fallout. 110,000 Syrian refugees are crowding the Turkish borders and rates of internal displacement are spiralling out of control, even by the horrific standards of the Syrian civil war.”

With assistance from Russia and Iran, the Assad regime has managed to regain territories it had lost to the opposition earlier in the civil war, and now controls nearly 73% of Syria.

Turkey has previously launched three military operations against the Islamic State extremist group in Syria and a Syrian Kurdish militia in 2016, 2018 and 2019.