Iran's real equation: Not Tehran and Washington, but the people versus the regime

While the Iranian regime tries to manage its internal and external crises through political theater, security crackdowns, and propaganda campaigns, the facts on the ground tell a different story.

The Islamic Republic is now more trapped than ever in a perfect storm of overlapping emergencies: a collapsing economy, diplomatic deadlock, international isolation, widespread public discontent, and most dangerous of all for the regime the growing strength of organized popular resistance, which it itself regards as its greatest existential threat.

In recent days, three major global economic institutions, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Energy Agency issued a joint warning about the consequences of continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a CBS News report on May 29, 2026, the organizations stressed that any prolonged interruption of oil flows through the strait would pose serious risks to global energy security and economic stability. The irony is unmistakable: a regime that sought to exploit regional conflicts and tensions for its own gain has instead emerged as one of the principal sources of instability in international order.

At the same time, talks between Tehran and Washington continue to hit new obstacles. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s statement on May 30, 2026, that America is fully prepared to resume military operations against the Iranian regime, made clear just how wide the gap between the two sides remains. While the White House speaks of the possibility of a deal, in practice neither side is willing to make the necessary concessions. Washington will not abandon its core demands, and the Iranian regime cannot accept conditions that would undermine its ideological and security foundations. Yet the most critical crisis is not the external one it is unfolding inside Iran. A report published on May 28, 2026 by the Guardian painted a vivid picture of Iranian society after nearly 88 days of an almost total internet blackout. Contrary to the government’s expectations, the limited and heavily controlled restoration of access did not bring public celebration. It brought anger, distrust, and fresh protests.

Interviews conducted by the Guardian with ordinary citizens delivered one clear message: Iranians no longer view the internet as a favor granted by the regime, but as a basic right. Many saw the partial reconnection not as a show of strength by the authorities, but as an admission of weakness and failure. 

The regime is now caught in an impossible bind. Fully reopening the internet carries the risk of renewed protests, social organization, and free flow of information developments it deeply fears. Yet keeping restrictions in place only deepens the paralysis of an already crippled economy. It can neither open completely nor close forever. Alongside these crises, another development deserves attention: attempts by some monarchist groups to position themselves as the main political alternative. However, a report aired by Germany’s ARD network on May 28, 2026, in its “Kontraste” program presented a far less flattering picture. The report documented numerous cases of threats, intimidation, and coordinated attacks against journalists, political activists, and critics of Reza Pahlavi. A German Tageszeitung correspondent faced a wave of threats and abuse after asking a critical question. Human rights activists and other dissidents reported receiving death threats and facing violence. The report raises an uncomfortable question: how can a movement claiming to represent democracy respond to criticism and political disagreement with tactics that echo authoritarian culture?

Many observers now argue that the project of restoring the monarchy neither addresses the demands of contemporary Iranian society nor offers a genuine alternative to the people’s call for freedom, republicanism, and popular sovereignty.  

Meanwhile, the 2025 annual report by Hamburg’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution highlights that the Iranian regime’s foreign intelligence activities remain overwhelmingly focused on the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The   National Council of Resistance of Iran has announced a major rally in Paris on June 20, 2026, with organizers expecting more than 100,000 participants, highlighting the movement’s growing capacity to mobilize support internationally.

The regime’s security apparatus still identifies organized resistance as its most serious threat. This reality reveals two important truths. First, the depth of the regime’s fear of expanding resistance networks inside and outside the country. Second, that the central conflict in Iran’s future is not between rival factions within the regime, nor between monarchists and other political forces. It is a deeper confrontation between an exhausted dictatorship and a society increasingly demanding fundamental change. Today, the evidence is overwhelming: Iran’s crisis is no longer merely a nuclear issue or a diplomatic dispute between Tehran and Washington.

The economy stands on the brink of collapse, negotiations reach repeated deadlocks, the regime is terrified of fully opening the internet, and large segments of society have moved far beyond acceptance of the current order. Contrary to what many foreign analysts assume, the final equation for Iran’s future will not be settled at a negotiating table in Washington or any other capital.

No agreement can resolve the regime’s profound crisis of legitimacy. The real knot lies elsewhere in the confrontation between the Iranian people and their organized resistance on one side, and a regime that relies on repression, censorship, executions, and the export of terrorism to ensure its survival on the other. The key to Iran’s transformation does not lie in negotiations, temporary deals, or diplomatic bargaining. It lies in this fundamental equation: a people and a resistance movement determined to advance, facing a regime that every day reveals more clearly its exhaustion and incapacity.

Hassan Mahmoudi is an Iran & Middle East political and Economic researcher