A realistic assessment of Sudan’s intractable situation

The Sudanese civil war has raged for 16 months, during which time the Sudanese army has failed to maintain the country’s stability and cohesion. This conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and displaced over 10 million Sudanese, approximately 20% of the country’s population. Consequently, about half of Sudan’s people now face the threats of famine, disease, and epidemics. Despite these dire circumstances, the army’s leadership remains convinced they can achieve a military victory and reclaim at least some of the territories controlled by the Rapid Support Forces, which currently holds nearly half of Sudan.

Confronted with this catastrophe afflicting the Sudanese state and its people, the army leadership and the so-called Sovereignty Council (personally, I do not know what those responsible for this institution, which has led the country into the most dangerous catastrophe in its recent history, understand by sovereignty) seem incapable of addressing the crisis constructively. Instead, they resort to distracting millions of Sudanese, both at home and abroad, by repeatedly making claims, allegations, and sometimes hurling insults at the UAE and its leadership, blaming them for Sudan’s current predicament.

The latest maneuver by the Sudanese army leaders is their baffling stance on participating in the Geneva negotiations. While refusal and aversion might be expected from the Rapid Support Forces for various reasons, it is both strange and alarming that this refusal comes from those who consider themselves the legitimate leaders of a state facing a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.

The Sudanese army’s claim that it was not invited as the country’s official representative, but merely as one of the conflicting parties, reveals a disturbing lack of priority for the fate of millions. This stance suggests that legal technicalities take precedence over the urgent humanitarian needs of the Sudanese people. In a crisis of this magnitude, every situation must be assessed according to its unique circumstances. Sudan now faces a situation that demands nothing less than giving absolute priority to humanitarian needs first, followed by a political resolution to the crisis.

Analysis of all available data clearly indicates that the Sudanese army leaders are primarily concerned with safeguarding their own interests in any arrangements related to the crisis. It would be misguided to assume that those who have remained silent about these dire humanitarian conditions over the past months possess any degree of rationality or genuine concern for Sudan as a state or for its people.

The abyss into which Sudan is sliding is painfully evident to all observers, as is the grim fate that awaits it—an outcome that no one wishes upon this nation. Sudan, an ancient country with a rich history, is home to people who do not deserve the ordeal they now face. However, the nation has been afflicted by a faction of the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood movement, which has managed to infiltrate and expand within various institutions of the deep state over years and decades.

This faction now exerts substantial control over the army’s decisions. It employs mouthpieces who continually engage in diverting attention from the humanitarian suffering and military failures. They find it sufficient to direct insults and accusations against the UAE and other countries to justify the catastrophe they have caused.

The Brotherhood faction’s control over the army’s decision-making process is the direct cause of this war’s continuation and the army leadership’s refusal to participate in any negotiations. They use the pretext of refusing the UAE’s participation, despite the fact that the army itself had previously engaged in negotiations in Manama, Bahrain, last February. The UAE participated in these talks, which resulted in promising understandings that could have ended this senseless war. However, the army later backtracked on its position and even denied that these negotiations had taken place.

One of the senior Sudanese army leaders continually vows to fight to the last drop of blood. Such rhetoric might be understandable if there were any prospect of achieving a military breakthrough, even a limited one. However, when fighting for the sake of fighting becomes the doctrine of leadership, it descends into pure absurdity. This stance is evidence of the ideological domination exerted by the Brotherhood faction over Sudan’s generals, reflecting the old and new commonalities and interests between the two parties. Both now find themselves in the same boat amid a stormy sea of crisis, believing there is no salvation for one without the other.

The army’s evasion of the negotiation process, regardless of any justifications or flimsy pretexts, can only mean one thing: a callous disregard for the consequences and repercussions of their actions. This approach leaves millions of Sudanese citizens prey to hunger. Moreover, it subjects them to severe forms of suffering by closing all humanitarian aid corridors and restricting the movement of humanitarian organizations over the past months.

Humanity has seldom, if ever, witnessed an army so disconnected from the principles of military honor, one that accepts being a direct cause of human suffering as exposed by reports from specialized international organizations. This army even criticizes any party that attempts to draw the international community’s attention to the Sudanese crisis or plays a vital role in providing humanitarian and relief assistance, as the UAE does.

The media affiliated with the Sudanese army accuses the UAE of playing a duplicitous role in the crisis. Even if we were to assume these ridiculous allegations and claims are true, one might wish these leaders would indeed play a dual role—providing their people with essential food and medicine instead of acting as jailers in many areas of the country.

Salem AlKetbi is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate