Egypt’s Somalia push raises alarm in Israel over Horn of Africa balance

JERUSALEM –

Israeli political and security circles are increasingly alarmed by what they see as Egypt’s accelerating military and diplomatic footprint in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa, moves viewed in Tel Aviv as a direct response to Israel’s growing regional presence, Israeli media reported.

According to Israel’s i24 News channel, Egyptian decision-makers are closely monitoring Israel’s expanding influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a move Cairo is said to regard as a strategic shift with far-reaching regional implications.

Israeli security sources cited by the channel said Egypt has recently intensified its political and security backing for Somalia’s federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, aiming to shore up stability in the fragile state and preserve its territorial integrity amid concerns over potential security fallout from Israeli manoeuvres in the region.

Israeli assessments suggest that Cairo interprets Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an attempt to establish a strategic foothold near the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, waterways of critical importance to Egypt’s national security, global trade routes and international maritime navigation.

The report added that Egyptian unease is not confined to Somalia alone, but extends to fears that Israel could leverage its regional ties to deepen cooperation with Ethiopia, at a time when relations between Cairo and Addis Ababa remain strained over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of Nile water flows.

As part of its analysis, i24 News hosted Israeli analyst and orientalist Edy Cohen, who described Israel as a rising power seeking to redraw the geopolitical map of the Middle East by projecting influence deeper into Africa. Cohen argued that Israel’s move southwards reflects a strategy aimed at positioning itself closer to perceived rivals while consolidating its geopolitical reach.

The channel also reported that Egypt has, since 2024, begun deploying troops and military advisers to Somalia following the signing of a joint defence agreement between the two countries. The accord reportedly includes Egyptian security and logistical support for Mogadishu in its fight against the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab.

Israeli sources estimated that thousands of Egyptian military personnel may now be present in Somalia, either under direct bilateral arrangements or as part of African Union peacekeeping missions.

In a related context, the report recalled previous remarks by Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who reaffirmed Cairo’s unconditional support for Somalia’s unity and sovereignty, stressing Egypt’s rejection of any unilateral steps that could undermine Somalia’s territorial integrity or impose new political realities outside the framework of international legitimacy.

The Israeli report concluded that Egypt’s moves come amid intensifying regional and international competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, a strategically vital region overlooking one of the world’s most important maritime corridors, and increasingly a focal point for overlapping global and regional interests.