Algeria and the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader: Disruption in calculations and a shift in discourse

The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei marked a pivotal moment in Algeria's regional calculations, disrupting the network of alliances through which Algeria has presented itself as one of the last bastions of "resistance and defiance" in the Arab region. However, this classification remains more of a rhetorical phenomenon than an impactful field action, fueled by lingering revolutionary slogans from the Cold War era.

In just two years, Algeria lost two strategic allies in different regions: Syria in the Middle East and Venezuela in Latin America. Bashar al-Assad was ousted in Damascus, followed by the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas.

This collapse embodied a gradual erosion of the axis that Algeria saw as both political and symbolic support. With the US-Israeli strike on Iran, it became clear that the mirrors of the Third Circle in this axis's framework had shattered, leaving Algeria facing a regional landscape being reshaped without it.

The intersection of interests or similarity in political discourse was not the only thread binding these three regimes; it also included shared enmity toward Morocco and support for the Polisario Front's separatist cause. Therefore, Algeria did not view its alliance with Syria, Venezuela, and Iran merely as ideological alignment but also as a direct extension of its strategic priorities related to the Western Sahara dispute.

Since its independence in 1962, Algeria has repeatedly invoked narratives such as non-interference in the internal affairs of states. Yet this discourse has remained selectively applied, with Morocco exempted as a special case in Algerian political doctrine.

Amid its growing sense of isolation—due to strained relations with Morocco and several Sahel countries, extending to European and Gulf partners—Algeria saw the recent Saudi-Emirati rift as a potential opening for repositioning. It appeared as an opportunity to disrupt alignments and reshuffle the cards.

However, betting on a transient disagreement between two states whose strategic fates are intertwined was seen as more circumstantial reading than a deep assessment of the nature of Gulf-Gulf relations, which quickly return to their natural balance no matter the differences or disputes. The Gulf-Qatar crisis serves as a clear example.

When Algeria announced weeks ago that Saudi security was a "red line," the stance aligned with its desire to break isolation. But this discourse was soon tested with the launch of Iranian attacks on Gulf states. Here, hesitation became evident through the ministry's modest initial statement calling for "self-restraint," without naming the aggressor or explicit condemnation, using cautious diplomatic language that reflected an attempt to balance declared solidarity with Saudi Arabia and more complex calculations toward Tehran.

However, the announcement of the Supreme Leader's killing, the day after the attacks began, changed the equation. Algeria found itself compelled to shift from reservation to a clearer discourse, evident in President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, during which he expressed explicit solidarity with Saudi Arabia.

The contrast between the initial foreign ministry statement's language and the presidential call's tone clearly reflects an effort to repair the image of Algerian diplomacy, which appeared disrupted.

Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf's meeting that same day with ambassadors from Arab states targeted by Iranian military attacks served as an attempt to affirm alignment with the principle of state sovereignty and territorial unity. Yet the Algerian foreign ministry's statement on the meeting contained ambiguity regarding Emirati representation, leaving room for interpretation, especially amid ongoing tensions between the two countries.

Faced with this confusion and these developments, Algeria's traditional discourse is no longer sufficient to secure an active and influential position for it in a new strategic equation that demands higher pragmatism and greater clarity in alignment.

Here, the most pressing questions in the current phase remain: How will Algeria respond to the changing situation in Iran? Is it capable of reformulating its diplomatic doctrine, overcoming the legacy of slogans, and adopting a political realism that matches the many and exciting transformations sweeping the region and the world?

Hatim Betioui is a London-based journalist and Secretary General of the Assilah Forum Foundation.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Middle East Online